at the beginning of new year to listen to the copper outlook in 2017 -捕鱼金币

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at the beginning of new year to listen to the copper outlook in 2017

the author:    release time : 2017-01-04 16:26:30    874time to browse

article: (1) jinrui futures copper market outlook in 2017: the soil

the annual report core ideas:

1, copper prices continue rapidly rising trend in 2017 bull market has not come;

2, 2017, after the high low before the domestic economy, stabilizing time will depend on the real estate investment and promote related industries inventory cycle of continuous efforts;

3, we slightly lower consumption growth this year to 3% next year;

4, a slight increase in consumption abroad stability;

5, domestic copper scrap consumption or marginal improvement, continuous backlog;

6, in 2017 the global supply of refined copper growth back slightly, but the face of uncertainty.

yangtze river annual spot tons of copper price is expected to 16.1% from 37900 yuan in 2016 to 44000 yuan, core range for 37000 yuan to 53000 yuan, high to 55000 yuan; lme cash settlement price average price will rise from $2016 in 4850 to $5300, core fluctuations between $4700 and $6300, peak to $6500.

(2) china merchants futures article: getting a new lease copper prices fluctuate center of gravity move up

the annual report core ideas:

looking ahead to 2017, the global balance of supply and demand of the cathode copper or a copper concentrate supply growth plus scrap supply growth = electrolytic copper consumption growth ", the supply of copper concentrate 1% growth in 17 years or maintain, growth or the copper scrap supply end up to 6%. taken together, electrolytic copper supply growth of around 1.5% next year, and more consultants for consumption growth is between 1% and 2% next year. so next year copper still-volatile is given priority to, but after the recent rise in change the expected more industry investment, inventory demand and speculative demand is expected to increase the disturbance on demand, 17 years copper average price will be up.

mining and smelting factory director single tc down to $92.5. according to cspt and foreign mines, a free port and jiangxi copper finish first copper concentrate long single price is $92.5, $97.25 last year, slightly below market expectations. 17 older single cut or reflect the supply of copper concentrate the contraction, 17 years of growth in copper concentrate or maintain 1% or so.

codelco downgraded china long single premium to $72. chile's state copper sent to china's electrolytic copper long single premium to $72, $98 last year, down 27%, that of chinese copper demand next year to save worry. subject to the real estate arrival inflection point, the more agencies downgraded the domestic economic growth next year, or domestic refined copper consumption growth is expected to drop to 2.7%.

supply side slide, falling demand side, not prominent contradiction between supply and demand. global supply side and demand growth next year is expected to decline, fluctuations in copper prices may continue to remain volatile, no obvious trend of unilateral opportunities. but needs the perturbation is larger, the boom in all goods this year to change the industry investment, industry next year is expected to improve their own inventory, so the whole industry chain inventory demand and speculative demand, can lead to a slightly greater than the supply growth in demand growth, center of gravity move copper prices fluctuations.

operation suggestions real estate back-end consumption or transmission to the second quarter of next year, plus years copper industry downstream inventory requirements, or lead to higher one quarter of copper; and in the second half of the new smelter is more, and copper scrap supply enough after rising, fluctuations in copper prices downward move. is expected to lower after 17 years before prices high.

(3) the citic futures article: supply pressure slightly slow macro configuration

the annual report core ideas:

1, copper declining the cost of the marginal space, mine falling investment increase rate of copper output interference;

2, inflation, commodity configuration requirements, and more - frank repeal may increase the fund on the copper market favor;

3, real consumption, short end there are emotional channel inventory support, in the second quarter after consumption may be falsified.

price outlook:

we run for copper confidence increases, the focus of the lifting operation on the space to the $4800 - $6800. rhythm, before the peak season of consumption, market inventory logic still exists, copper concussion uplink. cycle into the peak consumption season, season market need to observe actual effect, if the season be falsified copper prices adjust pressure. so the whole in the first quarter period of consumption cannot be falsified, copper supported, is expected to continue to surge. after entering the second quarter, the consumption of the material performance will directly affect the direction of the copper prices could continue to run high. in the second half of 2017 the regulation effect of the real estate market overall, consumption of the actual operation conditions need to track the ppp project and epitaxial hedge the risk of real estate demand.

overall copper intensity on the running rhythm, on the inflation situation and whether the united states to abolish the actual effect - more frank bill to use.

the main risk factors:

1, the ppp project unable to hedge in 2017 real estate market risk;

2, trump campaign to abolish more statement - frank bill was rejected;

3, inflationary pressures were falsified.

(4) article: huatai futures copper facing shortages of supply, demand into copper key factors

the annual report core ideas:

1, the balance between supply and demand of copper concentrate:

beginning in 2017, as a result of the new smelting capacity on the follow-up and copper concentrate on the lack of capacity, copper concentrate smelting capacity appeared relatively larger shortage. supply of copper concentrate directly limit the output of refined copper. due to the shortage of refining capacity supply of copper concentrate, copper concentrate processing fee from 2017 to 2018 tc/rc or is likely to fall below $80 / ton and 8 cents/lb.

2, refined copper supply and demand balance:

the 2017 global refined copper basic balance between supply and demand, but in 2018, began to appear gap, gap rapidly expand in 2019.

strategy 2017

1, 2017, the main strategies: when complete.

2, 2017, the main buy the range of $5000 / ton, chile is refined copper production reasonable profit zone.

3, 2017 major buying time interval, or in the second quarter, domestic refining capacity after launch.

4, expected profit space, direction for 2017/2018/2019 copper prices are bullish, expected profit space or above $3000 a tonne.

5, 2017, fundamentals of concerns: by the price of 2017 is expected to push still is supply driven, focused mainly on chile and peru copper supply indicators.

risk strategy in 2017

1, 2017, the main risk: demand is the main risk, according to the calculation of our annual report, we will make the biggest global 2017 demand forecast, if demand growth is not as good as expected, the copper prices may be spent in shock.

2, 2017, the main focus on the risk indicators: whether china much starker choices-and graver consequences-in distribution according to the planning and implementation.

(5) cru article: copper market outlook in 2017

demand outlook:

1, chinese demand is good, but also the increase in the amount of copper scrap

2, 2017, global demand for refined copper year-on-year growth remained at 2%, among them 2.9% demand growth in china;

3, 2017 mainly rely on domestic demand for refined copper air-conditioning repair inventory and electric power industry investment;

4, scrap supply increases to a certain influence on pure copper consumption;

5, while domestic demand to rise, global demand for overseas region rely greatly increased.

supply outlook:

1, copper mine is underpinned by higher production;

2, 2017 mining production outlook tends to improve, the number of mining project to be developed is still scarce, but more refining projects under construction, the global copper concentrate production will not be able to meet the needs of the new smelter.

balance between supply and demand and price forecast: fundamentals is moderate, copper prices higher, is expected to release more supply is expected to 2019 global appeared gap between supply and demand.

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